Archive - Redwood Research blog

Notes on fatalities from AI takeover

Large fractions of people will die, but literal human extinction seems unlikely

Sep 23 •

Ryan Greenblatt

Focus transparency on risk reports, not safety cases

Transparency about just safety cases would have bad epistemic effects

Sep 22 •

Ryan Greenblatt

Prospects for studying actual schemers

Studying actual schemers seems promising but tricky

Sep 19 •

Ryan Greenblatt

and

What training data should developers filter to reduce risk from misaligned AI?

An initial narrow proposal

Sep 17 •

AIs will greatly change engineering in AI companies well before AGI

AIs that speed up engineering by 2x wouldn't accelerate AI progress that much

Sep 9 •

Ryan Greenblatt

Trust me bro, just one more RL scale up, this one will be the real scale up with the good environments, the actually legit one, trust me bro

Above trend progress due to a rapid increase in RL env quality is unlikely

Sep 3 •

Ryan Greenblatt

August 2025

July 2025

Should we update against seeing relatively fast AI progress in 2025 and 2026?

Maybe we should (re)assess the case for relatively fast progress after the GPT-5 release.

Jul 28 •

Ryan Greenblatt

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